There are two impeachment-related risks for stocks, one more concerning than the other. jbarro writes
Photo: Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images President Trump says markets would “crash” if he is impeached. That is probably an overstatement, but intraday market moves on Tuesday did make clear that investors consider impeachment to be a negative event. Around noon on Tuesday, as news reports came out that Nancy Pelosi was expected to announce her support for a formal impeachment inquiry, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost hundreds of points within minutes. Then, just after 2 p.m.
“Dow Futures Plunge 750 Points as Trump Takes Key Battleground States” was a Marketwatch headline from 11:42 p.m. on November 8, 2016. But by the next day, stocks regained all those losses and then some. It was literally an overnight change: The market’s candidate was Clinton, until Clinton lost, and then the market fell in love with Trump.
Good Trump cuts corporate taxes, loosens regulations, and perhaps boosts the economy by improving investor and consumer confidence. Bad Trump imposes tariffs and foments uncertainty through erratic policymaking and government shutdowns. Because both Trumps are in office, he is not always a plus for markets: Bad Trump’s trade-war escalations, for example, routinely cause stocks to fall. But from investors’ perspective, over the last three years, Good Trump has mostly outweighed Bad Trump.
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