John Cassidy on what recent polls—many of which suggest Joe Biden is trailing Donald Trump—mean for the 2024 election and the Democratic Party.
In the 2020 election campaign, Biden led in the poll averages throughout and ended up winning the popular vote by 4.5 percentage points. But, as of Saturday morning, Biden is trailing Trump, albeit only by 1.7 points, in the RealClearPolitics poll average. In eight national polls carried out since Biden’s energized State of the Union speech, and recorded in the 538 database, two have shown him leading Trump, and six have shown him behind.
This stability expands to many other poll findings. For example, in the first five polls recorded in the RealClearPolitics database this year, Biden’s average approval rating on handling the economy was just 38.8 per cent. In the latest five polls, his average rating was thirty-nine per cent, basically unchanged. That is despite the fact that some other measures of economic sentiment, such as consumer confidence, have picked up since late last year.
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