Need to Know: The bad-news-is-good-news era may be over for investors
After another rocky session, U.S. stocks on Wednesday finished pretty much where they started. DataTrek Research pointed to a New York Fed research finding that basically all the moves in the S&P 500 going back two decades is tied to the three days around Federal Open Market Committee meetings, and more recently, the Fed’s press conferences and dot plots. Guess who doesn’t meet in August?
Not that the fundamentals, particularly in the U.S., are terrible—interest rates are low, inflation is stable, job growth is still solid, many mortgage borrowers are able to refinance to still-lower payments—but Alankar isn’t a fan of stocks at the moment. He said the firm takes a close look at option pricing, and stocks aren’t pricing in enough downside.
Gold—where futures on Wednesday closed at the highest level since 2013—and precious metals look attractive, as do bonds, he says. In stocks, he prefers Japanese and European equities over U.S., and growth over value. Despite the historic gap between growth and value, Alankar says he prefers growth plays because they are long-duration assets.
Earnings season continues, with Viacom VIA, -0.64% topping earnings expectations while Zillow Z, +0.38% ZG, +0.65% fell after its results. After the close, Uber Technologies UBER, +1.40% reports, while Uber rival Lyft LYFT, +2.71% late Wednesday forecast rising revenue alongside a $644 million quarterly loss. Jobless-claims data headlines a thin economics calendar.
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