Jeffrey Haley, the CEO of American National Bank and Trust Company, saw the crunch coming at the start of 2023. | Reuters
After a year of racing along a virtually unfettered path to higher interest rates, the Federal Reserve is facing its first significant pothole as the decisions made in hundreds of bank executive suites will either add up – or not – to an economy-shaping drop in lending.
The worst seems to have been avoided. Emergency steps by the Fed and Treasury Department protected depositors at both banks, helping ease what could have been a destabilizing run from smaller banks to larger ones. Other actions by the Fed helped maintain confidence in the wider banking system. Hard data on bank lending and credit will come into play, augmenting topline statistics like unemployment and inflation that the Fed is focused on. As Fed policymakers gauge whether tougher bank lending may let the central bank forego future rate hikes, bank officer surveys will also be mined for clues about sentiment among those driving credit decisions.
A Conference of State Bank Supervisors survey found the lowest sentiment among community bankers since the poll began in 2019. Nearly all of the 330 respondents, some 94 percent, said a recession had already begun.
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