The reins of political power will be at stake in the 2020 U.S. elections — not just for the presidency, but for thousands of state House and Senate seats.
The reins of political power in the U.S. for the next decade could be determined in this year’s elections — not necessarily by who wins the presidency, but by thousands of lower-profile contests for state legislative seats across the country.
Seven states have only one congressional district because of their small populations. Of the remaining 43 states, eight use redistricting commissions for Congress that leave little or no role for the state legislature. Eleven of the 50 states rely on independent commissions for redistricting their state House and Senate seats. The rest involve lawmakers in the process, and most also give governors a say.
“This is the long-term investment,” Republican State Leadership Committee President Austin Chambers said. “This is about making sure that we have a congressional majority and a conservative majority across the country at the state and local level for the next decade.”Four of the biggest redistricting prizes in the 2020 legislative elections are Texas, Florida, North Carolina and Georgia. Those states combined account for 90 U.S.
If Democrats could flip control of at least one legislative chamber in GOP-led states, they could gain leverage for redistricting compromises that could increase their odds of winning future elections and building their majority in Congress. But a pair of constitutional amendments approved by voters since the last census have changed the redistricting process to inject greater bipartisanship. After the 2020 census, a congressional redistricting plan must receive a 60% vote in both the House and Senate — including support from at least half the minority party members in each chamber — to last for the full decade.
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