The state weather bureau on Thursday said there is a 90 percent chance that the El Niño phenomenon will persist until the first quarter of 2024.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration’s forecast showed there is a 53 percent chance that the El Niño would reach a strong level toward the latter part of 2023.
According to the United Nations, it is near-certain that 2023-2027 will be the warmest five-year period ever recorded as greenhouse gases and El Niño combine to send temperatures soaring. The hottest eight years ever recorded were all between 2015 and 2022, with 2016 the warmest—but temperatures are forecast to increase further as climate change accelerates.
The 2015 Paris Agreement saw countries agree to cap global warming at “well below” two degrees Celsius above average levels measured between 1850 and 1900—and 1.5°C if possible.The WMO said there was a 66 percent chance that annual global surface temperatures will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one of the years 2023-2027, with a range of 1.1°C to 1.8°C forecasted for each of those five years.
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