![[Newsstand] Dynamic race, static survey?](https://i.headtopics.com/images/2022/3/14/rapplerdotcom/newsstand-dynamic-race-static-survey-1503317912588894211.webp)
'After so much movement in the presidential race, the latest poll seems to show that the race standings haven't moved. What can this mean?' PHVote WeDecide Read this ThoughtLeaders piece by Rappler's John Nery.
The latest Pulse Asia survey, conducted in the third week of February but whose results were released only on Monday, March 14, shows the main presidential candidates running in place. The February results are fundamentally the same as in January: Ferdinand Marcos Jr still at 60, Leni Robredo at 15 , Isko Moreno at 10 , Manny Pacquiao still at 8, Ping Lacson at 2 . The movements are within the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 2.
The timing of that release lit a fire under Robredo supporters, because it came right on the heels of a successful, large “grand rally” at the Quezon Memorial Circle. But in fact, when I asked Pulse Asia president Ronnie Holmes on February 4 – that is, over a week before the rally – when the release would be made, he said “before Valentine’s hopefully.” And when I asked him on March 3 about the release of the February survey, he replied: “same sked, before mid-March.
Many endorsements from local government officials supporting Robredo – including Bulacan Governor Daniel Fernando, Eastern Samar Governor Ben Evardone, and Cagayan de Oro Representative Rufus Rodriguez – were announced after the survey snapshot was taken. Jason Haw, a PhD epidemiology student at Johns Hopkins I’ve followed since the pandemic began for his facility with numbers, suggests three “hypotheses” to explain the “paradox” of a surge in the ground for Robredo that is not reflected in the surveys. I have been wrestling with exactly the same ideas since the Cavite rally, but without Haw’s clarity of thought.
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