Critical information for the U.S. trading day
Stocks are pointing to more gains, as yields go tumbling. Reopening after a holiday, bonds are rallying in part due to haven seeking after Hamas’ deadly attacks on Israel. But also, two Fed officials talked down interest rate hikes on Monday — more speakers are ahead for Tuesday.
The below chart from the bank shows record-low exposure for U.S. equities among commodity trading advisors, or CTAs, who profit from bets on futures markets, and often follow trends. So those CTAs who have been busy selling the S&P 500, are ready to buy it back if Goldman is right. However, not everyone advises following the trend-loving CTAs, who some criticize for often swinging from one extreme to the other.
This seasonality chart from Equity Clock that has been making the rounds may also support stock buyers: The buzz Israel’s war on Gaza entered its fourth day on Tuesday, with repeated bombings of Gaza City and 300,000 reservists called up. A senior Hamas official rejected the idea that Iran had some role in the planning of the surprise attacks that have led to 1,600 deaths on both sides.
The IMF kept its limp global expansion forecasts mostly in place — 3% for 2023 and slightly less growth of 2.9% next year.
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