Market Overview Analysis by Investing.com (Calogero Selvaggio) covering: S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite, Italy 10 Year vs Germany 10 Year Spread, 10-2 Year Treasury Yield Spread. Read Investing.com (Calogero Selvaggio)'s latest article on Investing.com
We're again going through a turbulent period in the world in which the economy and stock markets will also be more volatile in consequence. Friday was no exception.. Initially, we witnessed a surge in yields and a sharp drop in stocks. However, just as the session was about to begin, stocks staged an unexpected turnaround, closing the day in positive territory. Notably, this marked the first time theThe current market climate has become increasingly challenging to decipher.
This leads us to ponder a pertinent question: If the prevailing consensus among economists and analysts is that the market is on the brink of a collapse, why do we witness Consumer Discretionary sectors, which deal in secondary goods, consistently exhibiting greater strength than Consumer Staples, which are associated with essential consumer products.) is generally key to understanding market cycles.
A cursory look at historical data reveals instances of the 10-2 spread turning negative, such as during the 1970s when Paul Volcker presided over the Fed. Subsequently, we've seen smaller inversions in the 1990s, 2000, and during the great financial crisis. “First, the term premium is well below its long-term average, so it takes fewer expected rate cuts to invert the curve. Second, there is a plausible path to Fed easing just on the back of lower inflation — in fact, both our and the FOMC’s nonrecession projections call for more than 200 basis points of gradual cuts in the next 2-3 years.
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