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That is why a recession or negative growth is such a big deal to those who are supposed to be leading us to the promised land.
If the Fed optimizes for growth, then it must cut its policy rate and start buying bonds again with printed money. This will reduce the monthly payments for housing, autos, and other durable goods for the 90% of American households who own less than 10% of the financial wealth of the country.’Some things just cannot be uttered by the high clergy at the Fed. For example, they can’t say, “we shall print money to pump asset prices and save the financialized American economy.” It’s too gauche.
That ends the prepared remarks. Now let’s move into the Q&A. This is a pretty long section, and I believe there was only one exchange that mattered. It was with Colby Smith from the Financial Times, and I’m going to walk you through it piece by piece.
So what are we going to be looking at? You know, we’ll be looking at the incoming data, as I mentioned, and that’ll start with economic activity. Are we seeing the slowdown that we—the slowdown in economic activity that we think we need, and there is some evidence that we are at this time. So in light of all that data, the question we’ll be asking is whether the stance of policy we have is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation back down to our 2 percent target. And it’s also worth noting that these rate hikes have been large and they’ve come quickly, and it’s likely that their full effect has not been felt by the economy. So there’s probably some additional tightening—significant additional tightening in the pipeline.
In both the June and July meetings, the Fed raised rates by 0.75%, and the expectations for the amount the Fed would raise at the September meeting barely budged. The September 30, 2022 fed funds futures contract was 97.53 on June 17 and 97.495 on July 27. The market is clearly discounting a fed funds rate cut well into the future.
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