Looming wage hikes, fare increases signal overshooting inflation - BusinessWorld Online

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Looming wage hikes, fare increases signal overshooting inflation - BusinessWorld Online
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Pressure on the government to raise the minimum wage and grant higher fares to the transport industry will cause inflation to overshoot government targets, ING Bank-NV Manila Senior Economist Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa said in a note. READ:

The looming increase in wages and fares, which are known as second-round effects after the prices of basic commodities like fuel and food rise, strengthens the case for inflation breaching the government’s 2-4% target band for a second straight year, Mr. Mapa said.

As oil prices continue to surge in response to the Russia-Ukraine war, petitions to increase the minimum fare are currently under review. A labor group has also urged the government to increase daily wage in Metro Manila by as much as P470.“Although private transport costs roughly 3% of the consumer price index basket, the sustained trudge higher of energy products is likely to ripple through to the rest of the consumer basket and more importantly on the Filipino consumer’s psyche,” he said.

Mr. Diokno has said inflation could hit 4.7% under a scenario where the Dubai crude price, the benchmark for Asia, averages $140 per barrel this year. Dubai crude was $104.38 per barrel on Tuesday, according to Bloomberg. Last month, the central bank raised its inflation forecast to 3.7% from 3.4% previously amid the surge in oil prices.

“With energy costs and the price of staples on the uptrend, we are seeing how countries are making a mad dash to secure stable supplies, with surging wheat prices driving a 20% increase in the cost of rough rice on the global markets,” Mr. Mapa said.

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