Nomura Global Markets Research said it downgraded its growth forecast for the Philippines to 6.3% from 6.8% due to the expected impact of inflation caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. READ:
The projection was made in a note issued by analysts Sonal Varma, Ting Lu, Euben Paracuelles, and Jeong Woo Park.“In Asia, India, Thailand and the Philippines are the biggest losers, while Indonesia would be relative beneficiaries from higher commodity prices,” the report said.
For now, Nomura said base effect from the high food prices last year is still keeping inflation muted. Headline inflation was at 3% for a second straight month in February. However, central bank Governor Benjamin E. Diokno has warned that rising oil prices could push inflation beyond the target band by the second quarter, before slowing in the second half of the year.
Relatively low vaccination rates and the possibility of further outbreaks due to election-related activities could also impede growth by delaying the economy’s full reopening, it added.
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