Michael Bloomberg's campaign relies on a set of assumptions — none of which are wildly implausible. It would just take all of them coming true for him to win the nomination.
Yes, say the political strategists around former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg, the notion of him becoming the Democratic presidential nominee requires many unprecedented and highly speculative factors falling into place just so.
— That the contest will remain muddled and fluid until the March 3 Super Tuesday primaries , even though historically the early states have clarified the race and created frontrunners in ways that offered no path to late entrants. Here is a breakdown of four key strategic assumptions of Bloomberg’s nascent campaign, along with some “yes but” analysis about why those assumptions might be wobbly. Probably there is no individual Bloomberg assumption that is wildly implausible. But it is the number of assumptions that must come together at once that make this for now a low-probability endeavor.There’s no nice way to put it.
“We did a poll, it was the exact same poll that the New York Times did — it overlapped by a few days — and it had Elizabeth Warren losing not one swing state but six swing states,” one of Bloomberg’s advisers said, listing the states as Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona. "If the election was held today, with her [running] against Trump, he wins all six" states, the person added.
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