El Niño means an even floodier future is on the coastal horizonbDue to the cumulative toll of high-tide flooding, the effort and cost of response
within the Atlantic basin , but in the end, the scale is still tilted toward higher overall storminess along the U.S. East and West coasts during El Niño.
Graphs of number of high-tide flooding days per year from 1960 through 2022 from NOAA tide gauges in Norfolk, Virginia , and Los Angeles, California, . The gray dashed line shows the long-term increasing trend . The gray shading at the end of the time series indicates the likely range of values that would be predicted for 2023-24 based solely on extrapolating the long-term trend.
Along the U.S. Pacific Coast, where the rate of sea level rise is lower than along the Atlantic Coast, 3 to 8 days of high tide flooding are predicted in 2023/24, with the currently predicted El Niño expected to have three times more influence on the increase relative to the year 2000 than long-term sea level rise .
Whatever happens, now is a good time to evaluate local vulnerabilities and begin preparing for high-tide flooding predicted to occur this coming year.
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