The first large study of its kind shows nature reserves can increase waterbird populations, but typically only if humans take an active role in their management.
Campaigns to protect the natural world are getting more and more ambitious. The popular “30x30” movement, for example, seeks to protect 30% of Earth’s surface by the year 2030. But although there is convincing evidence that protected areas such as national parks prevent habitat loss, proof that they actually benefit wildlife is surprisingly scanty.
To understand the impact of nature reserves, conservation scientist Hannah Wauchope of the University of Exeter and colleagues decided to analyze populations of waterbird species, including ducks, geese, and sandpipers. Their primary question: Did designating a place a protected area improve the fortunes of the birds?
Next, they used a method called a “before-after-control-intervention” analysis, which conservation scientists rarely attempt for global populations because of the large amount of data required. The analysis was so complex that supercomputers at the University of Cambridge “took forever,” says conservation scientist Julia Jones of Bangor University. Large-scale use of BACI sets this study apart, says Tom Brooks, chief scientist of the International Union for Conservation of Nature.
To figure out what was responsible for the population gains and losses, the team analyzed multiple factors, including the quality of national governance a reserve’s proximity to farm fields or villages, which is sometimes correlated with declining populations of wild species. Of the seven variables, they found the best predictor of success was one of the most obvious: whether the site was specifically managed for waterbirds.
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