China's slowdown has been worse than you thought
Years before he became China’s premier, Li Keqiang memorably told the U.S. ambassador that China’s main economic statistics are “man-made” and “for reference only.” He recommended looking at rail freight, bank lending, and electricity consumption.
Unlike most other countries, China’s local authorities are in charge of the production of economic statistics. The National Bureau of Statistics collects the numbers provided by the regional governments, adds them up, and then estimates overall production, consumption, and investment figures. var mobBreakpoint=661; addMobClassToRelatedInset; whenAvailable { $.resize { addMobClassToRelatedInset; }); function defer { if !==null) { method; } else { setTimeout { defer }, 100); } } defer { var curr_article_SBID=document.querySelector.getAttribute; var inputs=document.getElementsByClassName; for ) { targetEl.classList.remove; } }; function getWidth { var width=0; var w=window, d=document, e=d.documentElement, g=d.getElementsByTagName[0], x=w.innerWidth || e.clientWidth || g.
By contrast, the new estimates imply the cutbacks to investment were far more severe than what was implied by the official data. According to Chen et al., the share of the Chinese economy devoted to investment has dropped from a high of 43% in 2009 to just 34% by 2016. The corollary is that Chinese people now consume more than 60% of what they produce. That is still low, but far closer to the pre-1989 norm. From this perspective, China’s rebalancing has made more progress than commonly believed.
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