California permitting was 29% below the previous 12-month pace – and only 12 states had bigger drops.
Before October’s tumble, California’s permitting pace of the past year was 14% above the pre-pandemic 2015-19 average. That California building bump trailed the 38% national growth rate and ranked 41st among the states. Texas was 13th at 49% and Florida fifth at 67%.
It’s a tad delusional because developers – whether they’re building housing to buy or rent – are not exactly willing to take on huge financial risks for construction that would ultimately crush property values. You can argue about the size of the longer-view housing shortage all you want. But builders are focused on short-term profitability.Consider that since 2015, California has permitted 858,387 units – that’s 8% of the U.S. total construction plans for ownership and rental housing.
Next, ponder the balance of new places to live vs. how many folks actually live here. Over eight years, California permitted 130 housing units for every 100 new residents. That surplus is hopefully making a relative dent in housing costs.
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