Britain is in the midst of its deepest downturn in peacetime as the coronavirus pandemic wreaks havoc on the economy, a Reuters poll of economists found, while an expected recovery in the second half is already in jeopardy.
FILE PHOTO: Pedestrians walk along the Southbank in view of skyscrapers in the financial district in London, Britain February 17, 2020. REUTERS/Simon Dawson/File Photo
As in other Reuters economic polls in recent weeks, those forecasts were hacked from something previously more optimistic - but still dire. Only last month, the median forecast was for a modest 0.3% contraction this quarter. “If COVID-19 returns with equal, or greater vigour, such that the initial drop in output sticks for several quarters, then it is hard to see a severe financial crisis being avoided,” said Andrew Brigden, chief economist at Fathom.
The most pessimistic base case in the Reuters poll was for a 35% contraction this quarter and for the worst case 40%. Respondents gave a median 100% chance of a recession within a year. Half of the 22 economists who responded to another extra question said the recovery would be U-shaped. Four said it would be V-shaped, four said tick-shaped while three said W-shaped.
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