NEW YORK — Two hours before the New York Mets and New York Yankees faced off for the third of four games between the two most expensive teams in baseball this season — and one week before the trade deadline — Mets manager Buck Showalter considered the line of questions he was fielding from reporters.
And that decision — to add or subtract from the amount of talent at the major-league level — affects how the final two months of the season play out. The middling teams that sell, presumably, will be worse in August and September than they would’ve been had they opted to augment.
After the series split, the Yankees' chances of making the postseason, according to Fangraphs, are 35.2%, down from 81.2% on Opening Day. The Mets are at 14.4% after starting the season at 77.1%. In a six-team-per-league postseason field, seven American League teams have better odds than the Yankees.teams in the National League have better odds than the Mets.
This week’s Subway Series contained glimmers of whatever you wanted to look for — the Mets’ lineup has the potential to bash, Verlander can rise to the occasion, Rodón was worth the money, the Mets’ bullpen can blow almost any lead, the Yankees’ relief corps is quietly the best in baseball, and even in wins, Judge’s absence is palpable. Both teams are costing themselves on the basepaths and on defense, where true contenders would play cleaner.
This series probably did little to change either team's plan at the deadline. Most likely, the Mets will be forced by their dwindling odds to sell, but tepidly, so as not to set themselves back too far. And the Yankees will look to buy,These are noncommittal paths for teams stuck in a purgatory of their own underperformance. But for the Yankees, at least, there is hope on the horizon.
By the time the second game was over Wednesday, Judge had returned from Florida, where he'd been playing in simulated games, to New York. Reports are that he could rejoin the team for the series that starts Friday in Baltimore. In 42 games without him, the Yankees have compiled the fourth-worst offense in all of baseball by wRC+.
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