A popular bond market signal is flashing red recession warnings, but much of the rest of the Treasury yield curve still looks fine
Something strange is afoot with economists’ favorite recession indicator.
The yield on a 10-year Treasury note has fallen below the yield on a three-month bill, the most-reliable signal yet found of danger ahead. But Treasurys of other maturities don’t show an inversion. The yield on the 30-year, for instance, is still comfortably higher than the 10-year. Before past recessions, long yields were lower. Drawn as a curve, yields sloped downward .
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