The world economy is beginning the new year on a more optimistic note, though that’s no guarantee 2023 will end that way.
of China’s economy, a warmer-than-normal winter in energy-strapped Europe and a sustained fall in US inflation—are combining to dissipate some of the gloom that engulfed financial markets at the end of 2022 and fanning hopes the world can dodge a recession.
He’s betting they’ll succeed—and so too are investors. Emerging-market equities are on a tear and corporate-bond prices are rising on hopes that the world economy will emerge from the scariest inflation in decades without suffering a downturn. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues are expected to downshift to a quarter-percentage-point rate hike at their Jan. 31-February 1 policy meeting, according to trading in the federal funds futures market. That would follow a half-point increase in December and four 75 basis-point moves prior to that.
Credit mild winter weather and a concerted effort to boost supplies and expand suppliers to make up for lost imports from Russia. The result: the euro-area economy has held up better than expected: Industrial production in Germany edged up in November, despite the country’s heavy dependence on Russian energy supplies.
While China’s recovery faces hurdles, the combination of an easing real estate slump and more government support means the outlook is better than many anticipated as recently as the end of last year.
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