Even though East Asian economies have mostly recovered from the series of shocks since 2020, including the Covid-19 pandemic, the pace of growth will likely slow.
The World Bank now expects developing East Asia and Pacific to grow 5% this year, versus 5.1% previously.Growth risks include swelling government, corporate and household debt levels.
The World Bank left its 2023 economic growth forecast for China unchanged at 5.1%, but lowered its 2024 estimate to 4.4% from 4.8% previously. The organization cited"longer-term structural factors," elevated debt levels in the world's second-largest economy and weakness in its property sector as reasons for its downgrade.
It warned that high government debt levels can limit both public and private investment. Elevated debt could lead to higher interest rates, which would increase the cost of borrowing for private businesses, it said. The bank also noted relatively high levels of household debt in China, Malaysia and Thailand compared to other emerging markets. High household debt can have a negative impact on consumption, since more income would be used to service debts, which could lead to cuts in spending.
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