'We’re talking about human lives.. Not just changes in temperature, but actually our lives,' says Eunice Lo, a climate scientist at the University of Bristol.
To see how global warming could affect death rates, the scientists simulated three possible climate scenarios. In one, the world’s nations do only the bare minimum to curb, limiting the rise of the global average temperature to 3 degrees Celsius by 2100. In the other two scenarios, the nations go above and beyond in their efforts, limiting the global average temperature rise to 2 or 1.5 degrees Celsius.
At 3 degrees of warming, the scientists estimated that a once-in-a-generation heat wave could claim more than 20,000 lives across the 15 cities. Keeping warming to 2 degrees could save hundreds or thousands of lives in most of the cities, the study showed. At 1.5 degrees of warming, more than half of some cities’ projected deaths could be prevented.
Aaron Bernstein, co-director of the Center for Health and the Global Environment at Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health, praised the study for its city-by-city breakdown of preventable heat-related deaths. He called it “a much more sophisticated and accurate way to look at the question” than relying on national data alone.
Lo said the study has some limitations, notably that the scientists were unable to predict what each city’s population — including its numbers of older and low-income residents — might look like at the turn of the century. Cities, and humans themselves, could also adapt to higher temperatures over time, resulting in fewer deaths than predicted.
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