With less than 60 days before the first votes are counted in Iowa, four candidates are in the mix or leading in at least one of the four early-voting states.
from Emerson College has Biden first, Sanders second and Buttigieg third.
One week later, Feb. 29, is the South Carolina primary, where Biden, who remains the only candidate with sizable support among black voters,. As long as Biden continues to have sizable support among African Americans, who make up more than half of the Democratic electorate there, he will be a heavy favorite in South Carolina.
Paleologos, who said it's too early to predict just how long the 2020 primary will remain wide open, called the scenario of four winners in the first four states"unlikely" but not out of the question. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won three of the first four states, the exception being New Hampshire, which Sanders carried. On the Republican side, Donald Trump won three of four with Ted Cruz winning Iowa.
Joe Trippi, a longtime Democratic campaign operative, said he believes it's"highly unlikely" the first four states will have four different winners. Based on primary history, Trippi said the outcome of Iowa will probably change the dynamics of the race despite what the polls might currently say.
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