When the Fed ends its latest meeting Wednesday and Powell holds a news conference, Americans will likely get a better idea of how much pain could be in store.
In a further sign of the Fed's deepening concern about inflation, it will also likely signal Wednesday that it plans to raise rates much higher by year's end than it had forecast three months ago — and to keep them higher for longer. Economists expect Fed officials to forecast that their key rate could go as high as 4% before the new year. They're also likely to signal additional hikes in 2023, perhaps to as high as roughly 4.5%.
The economy hasn't seen rates as high as the Fed is projecting since before the 2008 financial crisis. Last week, the average fixed mortgage rate topped 6%, its highest point in 14 years. Credit card borrowing costs have reached their highest level since 1996, according to Bankrate.com. The inflation report also documented just how broadly inflation has spread through the economy, complicating the the Fed's task. Inflation now appears increasingly fueled by higher wages and by consumers' steady desire to spend and less by the supply shortages that had bedeviled the economy during the pandemic recession.
And in China, the world’s second-largest economy, growth is already suffering from the government’s repeated COVID lockdowns. If recession sweeps through most large economies, that could derail the U.S. economy, too.
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