As we enter the age of clean energy, traditional petrostates like the Russian Federation may not be resilient enough to survive.
, close to 20% of global power needs will be met by solar or wind by 2035, displacing the equivalent of roughly 100 billion cubic feet per day of gas demand. By 2040, oil demand displaced from electric vehicles will double to almost 6 million barrels per day. It’s worth mentioning that since 2010, solar photovoltaic costs have fallen 80%, while at the same time more mature technologies, like onshore wind, have seen costs fall about 30%.
Wood Mackenzie also predicts that after 2035, increasing adoption of renewable generation and electrified transport will make them the default choice across many energy systems around the world. Indeed, half of all new power plants constructed globally will be either solar or wind, or a hybrid combination with storage. On top of this, 50% of all additional miles traveled by road will use an electric vehicle.
Among the solutions to these challenges may be a deep government reform which would include improvements in the investment climate through a boost to the rule of law; a curb on corrupt and overbearing law enforcement; a welcoming environment to small and medium business; development of tourism; thriving of innovation and venture capitalism; and a further boost to agriculture.
But since the Putin administration demonstrates no interest in such reforms, it will be up to the next generation of the Russian leadership to achieve all that – or preside over the further decline of their country. Russia is said to be never as strong as it seems or weak as it appears. The end of the hydrocarbon age will put Russian toughness to the ultimate test.I am a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council and the Founding Principal of International Market Analysis, a Washington, D.C.-based global risk advisory boutique. I advis...
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