Let’s call September to January Southern California’s “off” season. It’s when the median selling price falls 80% of the time.
Southern California homebuying is at the beginning of its annual “off” season with a high probability of price declines.My trusty spreadsheets peeked into month-to-month median selling-price data from closed Southern California transactions dating to 1988. The goal was to see how the calendar affects what house hunters will pay in the six-county region.Let’s call September to January the off-season for Southern California homebuying.
This is quite a reversal, historically speaking, from the seven months we’ve just finished. Let’s call that the “prime time” for home prices.Southern California prices have risen 91% of the time in the February-through-August period since 1988. That’s 32 increases out of 35. Life cycles play a big role. For house hunters with children, these off-season months come after school starts – a key date on any family’s calendar. For sellers, unless one is pressed to move, who wants to be hassled with selling during the holidays and the market’s off-season?No matter the cause, seasonal price swings – up and down – are meaningful events with the typical year pivoting in August. Look how these long-running patterns played out recently in Southern California.
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