The All-Star break is in 20 days, and Luis Arraez is hitting .400 after logging 5 hits last night. We had him +830, and now he's down to +360 FDSportsbook. Do you think the Marlins 2B will hit .400+ by the All-Star break? ⤵️
Can Arraez keep up this pace, and even threaten to get back above .400? It should be obvious that this will take some good fortune on his part. Nobody in recent MLB history has been a sustainable .400 hitter. To reach that mark, a player needs to be a great hitter and be more than a little lucky.
There’s no doubt that Arraez has also enjoyed incredible luck so far this year. He has a batting average on balls in play of .407, and while hitters have some control over this number, his career BABIP is just .347. Statcast doesn’t think Arraez is hitting the ball particularly hard — his barrel rate and hard hit rate are both below his career averages — so it’s difficult to imagine his numbers won’t come back to Earth a little by the end of the season.
To make a Yes bet worthwhile, we need Arraez to have at least an 11% shot at doing that. His career numbers would suggest that his odds are far lower: he’s only had one full month where he’s hit over .420. But even after his hitless performance on Monday, Arraez is hitting .432 in June over 11 games.
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