Analysis: Fighting in Sudan may inflame conflicts within its seven neighbors’ borders: Egypt, South Sudan, Chad, Central African Republic, Libya, Ethiopia and Eritrea.
The risk of a regional spillover is high given Sudan’s geostrategic importance at the intersection of the Indian Ocean, Horn of Africa and Arab world. The Nile River and oil pipelines run through the mineral-rich nation, linking its fate with its neighbors.In the north, Egypt relies on Sudan as a bulwark against political upheaval and a partner in regional water disputes. Egypt is close with Gen.
The Sudanese army and RSF joined up in 2021 to overthrow Sudan’s civilian-led transitional government. The coup cut off Sudan’s path toward democracy, which began when nationwide protests in 2019 forced out former military leader Omar Hassan al-Bashir after 30 years in power. Egyptians ousted their longtime dictator, former president Hosni Mubarak, in 2011; the military seized power in 2013 in a coup led by now-President Abdel Fatah El-Sisi.
The north of South Sudan is economically dependent on Sudan, and the fighting has disrupted supplies of critical food and goods. Aid agencies, at the same time, are stretched thin: The international humanitarian response plan for South Sudan has received less than a quarter of the funding it requires, Verney said.
On Sudan’s western side, the United Nation’s estimates that about 100,000 Sudanese will flee over the border to Chad, a key regional U.S. ally. About 20,000 people crossed into Chad from western Sudan’s violence-plagued Darfur region in the first few days of fighting, according to the United Nations. Chad was already host to about 400,000 Sudanese refugees displaced by previous conflicts and housed in border camps.
, reported exclusively by The Washington Post, detail efforts by Russia’s paramilitary Wagner Group to recruit Chadian rebels and train them in the Central African Republic in a plot to topple Chad’s government. Wagner is active in the Central African Republic as part of Russia’s efforts to gain ground in Africa,
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