Caucuses and primaries are very different environments, starting with who shows up in the first place. ed_kilgore writes on why polls might get the Iowa caucuses wrong
2016 Iowa caucusgoers supporting Bernie Sanders. Photo: Michael B. Thomas/AFP via Getty Images In an effort to explain major variances in polls leading up to the February 3 Iowa caucuses, the New York Times’ house contrarian Nate Cohn argues that the universe of likely caucusgoers skews much younger than some surveys indicate:
Cohn is arguing that some polls showing Joe Biden leading Sanders in Iowa are based on a profile of caucusgoers’ past primary-voting behavior, thus substituting an older group of participants than is likely the case.
Past caucusgoers back Mr. Sanders by four points, even as past primary voters support Mr. Biden. Voters who say they participated in the 2016 Democratic caucus, specifically, back Mr. Sanders by nine points; he’s at 25 percent and Pete Buttigieg at 16 percent. These 2016 caucusgoers say they voted for Hillary Clinton over Mr. Sanders, 49 percent to 46 percent, with 3 percent for Martin O’Malley — very close to the actual result, perhaps lending credibility to the overall Times/Siena finding.
Indonesia Berita Terbaru, Indonesia Berita utama
Similar News:Anda juga dapat membaca berita serupa dengan ini yang kami kumpulkan dari sumber berita lain.
Harry and Meghan Are Suing a Tabloid: Why That's So Surprising And Why It's Sort Of NotPrince Harry and Meghan Markle are taking legal action against The Mail on Sunday for publishing a private letter.
Baca lebih lajut »
'The Goop Lab' and other controversial documentaries: Why Netflix is facing criticism for promoting 'pseudoscience'Critics are concerned that Netflix's 'The Goop Lab' is peddling 'pseudoscience.' But this isn’t the first time the streaming service has created controversy with its health documentaries.
Baca lebih lajut »
Why the road to universal health care in America looks rockyEvery Democrat running for president agrees that America’s health-care system needs reform. The debate over how to do so divides the field
Baca lebih lajut »