What makes it so hard to issue earthquake warnings more than a few seconds in advance
The answer is tricky. The ability to predict where and when an earthquake will occur has eluded earth scientists for years, though the stakes couldn’t be higher. Earthquakes account forof all deaths from natural disasters over almost two decades, according to the World Health Organization.
Major earthquakes, such as the 2010 temblor in Haiti, came as a surprise. To prevent incorrect guesses, geologists have begun to focus on the odds of an earthquake happening rather than attempting to forecast individual events.Scientists use geological measurements, data from seismology machines and historical records to highlight areas that are at risk for an earthquake — and then use statistical models to assess the likelihood of one happening in the future.
But as technology continued to advance, earthquake early-warning systems developed. These networks use seismology machines to detect and analyze tremors — and plug into a system that sends notifications to people a few seconds before an earthquake hits. There’s also an element of randomness to when an earthquake happens, which can sometimes occur without any warning signs, the experts added. Even if the technology shows promise, many scientists fear a product gets put out early without rigorous testing and fails, it makes people less trustworthy of the technology.“False alarms are almost worse than correct predictions,” Rundle said. “Because [then], people lose faith in the system.
Scientists are feeding machine-learning models troves of data, from seismology readings to radar data on how Earth’s surface is deforming, to get better at predicting the time and location of future earthquakes, he added.But even if the technology is mastered it is unlikely to be incredibly precise. In a best-case scenario, scientists could likely predict the location of an earthquake within a roughly a 600-by-600-mile range, and still over the course of a few years.
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