Nancy Pelosi’s hesitation was sensible enough. Polls show that only around a third of Americans support impeachment
“THE FIRST thing they think about when they wake up is impeachment,” said Rick Scott, a Republican senator from Florida, on September 25th, referring to his Democratic colleagues in Congress. Not so. In truth, they have only just begun to warm to the idea of impeaching President Donald Trump.
Those on the left of the party have long argued that Mr Trump’s dealings with Russia offer more than enough justification for his removal from office. But moderates like Nancy Pelosi, the House Speaker, have been reluctant to act. The most recent allegations against Mr Trump, that he abused his office to solicit Ukraine’s help in finding dirt on Joe Biden, the Democratic front-runner, seem to have pushed them over the edge at last .Ms Pelosi’s hesitation is sensible enough.
Punters on PredictIt, an online betting market, reckon that the chance Mr Trump will be impeached in his first term is 50%, up from 25% a week ago. But the chances he will be leaving the White House before 2021 are slim. The implied probability that Mr Trump will be the Republican nominee in 2020 has not changed. Nor have the GOP’s chances of winning the presidential election.
There is a simple explanation for this. Mr Trump’s opponents need only a simple majority in the House of Representatives to impeach, but require two-thirds of the Senate to convict, and remove him from office. Bill Clinton was impeached in his second term for lying under oath and obstructing justice, but was not defenestrated. The Republicans currently control 53 seats out of 100 in the Senate. Convincing 20 of them to cross party lines would be a tall order.
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