Housing inflation has been stubbornly high for months, according to CPI data. But economists think it has peaked and is on the precipice of a reversal.
Here's the reason for the lag: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics collects rent data from sample households every six months. The BLS also divides these sample households into six different subgroups and staggers when it collects data for each.That means it can take a year or so to collect data from all the subgroups.
But a decline in CPI housing inflation is"almost as much of a certainty as you can get, really," Hunter said. There's an additional measurement quirk relative to housing inflation: The BLS tries to assess price changes for homeowners as well as renters, in a subcategory called"owners' equivalent rent."
The measure is essentially a survey that reflects the price homeowners believe they could get if they were to rent their home. While somewhat tied to market rents, homeowners aren't necessarily feeling those inflationary pressures — especially those who have a fixed mortgage or own their home , Zandi said.
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