An Institute for the Study of War report has said that Belarusian forces remain 'extraordinarily unlikely' to invade Ukraine due to serious limitations.
according to Kyiv—will undermine future joint operations. Elite Russian units, ISW wrote,"now likely lack the capability to operate in combined formations with Belarusian forces and likely are unable to operate effectively in combined operations."
Belarusian opposition leaders have long predicted that the military would refuse an order from Lukashenko to join the war in Ukraine. ISW noted that"friction within the Belarusian military" has likely worsened due to Russia's efforts to pressure Minsk into joining the invasion, citing reports from Ukrainian intelligence and other sources of tensions between Belarusian troops and Russians stationed in the country.
Broader societal unrest is also staying Lukashenko's hand, ISW suggested. Lukashenko was able to suppress mass protests against the 2020 presidential election in Belarus, but the pro-democratic opposition remainsand its networks within the country are still strong. Minsk has also faced recent physical and cyber partisan attacks on infrastructure.
"Lukashenko is also likely aware that invading Ukraine would undermine his credibility as the leader of a sovereign country as it would be evident that Russia's effort to secure full control of Belarus had succeeded."
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