Why at the Kentucky Derby—as in investing—track records can mislead:
running of the Kentucky Derby. Louisville, home to iconic Churchill Downs racetrack, will be buzzing with over 100,000 fans, there to see the “fastest 2 minutes in sports.” Twenty 3-year old horses will compete for a total of $3mm in prize money.year in a row, I had the pleasure of discussing the big race with Caton Bredar, one of the racing industry’s most noted handicappers.
This year’s Kentucky Derby focus for me is on the issue of “track records.” After all, investors use the phrase constantly, and it was taken directly from the horse racing business. The chart below shows the 5-year return of a variety of different investments, portrayed through ETFs. They cover different areas of the stock and bond markets, as well as commodities. At the far right you can see the annualized returns of each one.
This year is also different because many of the prep races were run on very wet days at tracks around the country. Thus, we don’t really know which horses will run well in whatever conditions exist this Saturday.
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