When will U.S. economy bottom? Given how fast the situation has developed, judging when that happens in real time will prove challenging for economists who usually depend on monthly, quarterly or yearly trends in data via hpschneider
FILE PHOTO: People practice social distancing while spending time outdoors in the West Seattle neighborhood during the coronavirus disease outbreak in Seattle, Washington, U.S. April 2, 2020. REUTERS/David RyderGiven how fast the situation has developed, judging when that happens in real time will prove challenging for economists who usually depend on monthly, quarterly or yearly trends in data to judge the state of the business cycle.
In an effort to gauge what is happening using more frequently available information, economists are innovating. “Jobless claims will be the timeliest hard data point for assessing the depth of the recession and catching the start of the recovery,” Mericle wrote, noting that when initial claims start to fall, GDP will likely have stopped shrinking. When ongoing claims, by contrast, have fallen by perhaps a third, it will be evidence the economy is growing again.Goldman analysts have also combined granular data on things like movie ticket sales and hotel occupancy rates into a bespoke coronavirus tracker.
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