Joe Biden won at least 40%, if not more, of the late-deciding vote in almost every state on Super Tuesday. Who exactly were these voters—and why did they so overwhelmingly back Biden at the last minute? FiveThirtyEight explores:
Colorado is not included as its exit poll was conducted prior to Election Day to account for its mostly mail-in balloting system and it included candidates who withdrew just ahead of Super Tuesday. We don’t have exit poll data from Arkansas, Utah or American Samoa.But if we dig a bit deeper, we find certain groups of white voters were more likely to land on a candidate in the final days.
White voters aged 45 years or older were also likely to be late deciders. In fact, they made up half of all voters who made their vote choice in the final days. And of those, 57 percent supported Biden vote compared to only 11 percent for Sanders. That 46-point margin was nearly seven times larger than the 7-point edge for Biden over Sanders among older white voters who decided before the last few days.
But not all groups swung towards Biden in the last few days. Black voters were already very supportive, with more than half voting for him, and he didn’t make additional inroads with them. Even younger black voters, who were more likely to decide in the last few days than older ones, didn’t swing that much towards Biden in their decision.Here’s another interesting tidbit from Tuesday’s exit polls: Many voters went to the polls with coronavirus in mind.
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