What today's investors can learn from 1980s France:
The possibility of Jeremy Corbyn becoming U.K. prime minister with a strong Labour majority in Parliament looks remote at best, if current polls are to be believed. But fickle voters and the general Brexit upending of British politics mean that the scenario cannot be discarded altogether. For the moment, at least, it looks more like what economists sometimes call a “black swan” - an event with little likelihood but major potential consequences.
This has happened before, albeit in a radically different international context, when “globalization” wasn’t even a word. France in 1981 elected a socialist president, Francois Mitterrand, who had promised to govern in coalition with the communist party, then a powerful presence in French politics. Investors who had tended to dismiss the polls showing Mitterrand’s slow rise in the days before the vote then went into a panic the day after.
What happened then may be relevant to the U.K.’s potential situation on December 13 - the day after the general election. In May, 1981, the question of capital controls was soon raised in Paris. But the caretaker government refused to take the decision unless it was sanctioned by the president-elect. He declined, arguing he was not in power yet.
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