What China gets from the phase 1 trade deal, besides what's in the agreement
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If it is Bernie Sanders, currently the frontrunner in both Iowa and New Hampshire primaries, then China could see him as upholding tariffs, but erasing Trump’s tax cuts and reinstating regulations that make doing business in the U.S. more expensive. If Bernie is ahead in the polls by the end of the summer, China can also rest.
Of note, automotive parts imports were part of the trade deal. It is hard to see how China increases those imports if manufacturing of auto parts has been a plus for China’s industrial production. Chinese GDP growth hit 6.3% quarter over quarter in the fourth compared to 5.4% quarterly growth in the third, thanks to some fiscal stimulus measures there.
China looks safe, with most of its problems being internal. Internal matters are often the hardest to decipher in China due to concerns over official data accuracy.
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