The Federal Reserve (Fed) has upcoming rate decisions on February 1, March 22 and May 3. The market expects the Fed to soon be done raising rates, and even sees a chance of a cut in 2023. The Fed disagrees.
Similarities
Come the end of the year, in November or December, the Fed expects to be holding rates steady as inflation moves back to its 2% target. In contrast, the market believes the Fed could be tempted to nudge rates lower, perhaps based on concerns around a U.S. recession. However, here the controversy here is not too great, markets only see perhaps a 1 in 3 chance that the Fed decides to cut rates, and even then, by a small amount in November or December.
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