Deaths and departures lead to a significant population shift in Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties.
Los Angeles County lost more people during the height of the pandemic – residents who moved or died of COVID-19 – than any big county in the country, according to a new report from theThough some neighboring areas fared better, the sharp decline in the nation’s most populous county led to a regional population collapse last seen in Southern California during the aerospace crash of the early 1990s.
The Southern California decline was in line with the state – which lost about 1.2% of its population during the period covered in the census survey – but ran counter to the broad national trend, which saw the national head count grow by 0.8% during the 24 months that ended Dec. 31, 2022, according to census data.• Orange County contracted by 1.1%, to 3.151 million.• Riverside County grew 2.3%, to 2.473 million.
“The big picture is that Southern California’s growth is changing,” said Darin Chidsey, chief operating officer for the Southern California Association of Governments, a planning association that, among other things, tracks local population changes. The birth rate in much of Southern California has fallen in recent years to about 1.3 children per woman, well below the 2.1 average that typically is seen as enough to sustain a native population. And during the first year of the pandemic international immigration into the region was off by as much as 50%, according to state and federal reports.
Those trends – and the recent numbers that showed higher-priced counties shrinking and lower-priced counties gaining – suggest a big part of the exodus is about money; specifically, housing costs. “Every city and county needs to do their part to bring down the high housing and rent costs that are impacting families across this state,” Gov. Gavin Newsom said in an April 10 press release aimed at pushing city of Huntington Beach to allow more affordable housing.“For the first time, projections for affordable housing coming online are about 2.5% higher than expected,” Chidsey said. “It’s starting to resonate. If you have housing, and you have jobs – which this area has – you’ll have growth.
“We’ve already started to see level off quite a bit. Outmigration from Southern California is down by about 70%. When you start to pencil it in, the question is how fast will the other factors change.”
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