Long-term, it may be in Africa’s best interest to weaken the grip of Wagner forces on the continent and watch despotic regimes fall, but that might be more easily said than done.
Wagner forces have been loyal to Prigozhin, not necessarily to Putin. And they are definitely not loyal to generals in the Russian army.
It’s not as if Russia could repatriate and replace Wagner forces with verifiably loyal Russian troops — even if it wanted to. As Sergey Kostelyanyets of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute for African Studiesrecently, “Russia’s Ministry of Defense and other Russian security agencies have neither capacity nor will to replace Wagner, which has come to possess extensive physical and logical infrastructure in Africa.
Haftar, Goita, Touadéra, Traore — they all need Prigozhin to maintain a strong grip on Wagner’s fighters. They need Wagner to remain strong, well-funded, disciplined and in-place to protect their regimes.
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