What happens if Pete Buttigieg wins Iowa? FiveThirtyEight breaks it down:
, white voters said that they were “definitely” or “probably” ready for a gay or lesbian president 51 percent to 37 percent, while black voters said they weren’t ready 42 percent to 38 percent.
Since these factors are already baked in, I’m not sure how much Buttigieg’s success in Iowa and potentially New Hampshire will do to make him a viable national candidate . But I do think that the damage done to the other front-runners by a Buttigieg one-two punch in Iowa and New Hampshire could create big problems for their campaigns.
Of course, we’ll have to wait and see. Buttigieg will have to hang onto the lead in Iowa for almost three months for these scenarios to come true — otherwise, the shifting race could create even newer hypotheticals for us to consider.Nathaniel Rakich is FiveThirtyEight’s elections analyst.
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