What went wrong, or what went right?
But as the below graphic illustrates, that is exactly what has played out over the last 16 months. Job openings have come off their highs as firms feel under less strain, and quit rates have fallen as workers feel less enticed to jump ship — all while hiring continues at a robust pace. As the unemployment rate remains near its 60-year low there is no sign of recession.Many of the negative forecasts followed a pattern of underestimating the U.S.
The better-than-expected outcomes share a pattern. Each concern had merit but was considered too narrowly. The idiosyncratic, contextual, and situational drivers mattered more than what historical relationships — and the models that are based on them — said about these sectors. Though the first stages of the soft landing are a success, ruling out a recession would be a mistake. It remains a possible, even plausible, outcome . Monetary policy still has a foot on the brake. Real shocks can always end a cycle, particularly when growth is already slow and the economy thus more vulnerable, and financial stressors, such as bank failures, can pop up unexpectedly.
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