Epidemiological models, including the ones used to create the White House estimate, rely on a certain number of assumptions and data points to reach their projections. But some of those assumptions may not match up with reality, experts say.
, contrary to guidelines that advocate against large gatherings.
But even in regions under statewide lockdowns, the effectiveness of the extreme measures depends on everyone doing their part, Patel said. All the leading statistical models show that social distancing does work to slow the rates of infection. One of the most well-regarded forecasts — and one of several that the White House is using to shape its official guidance — was developed by researchers led by Christopher Murray at the University of Washington’s. They predict that if social distancing is maintained until at least the end of May, the end of the first wave of the epidemic could come by early June.
“In locations without social distancing measures currently in place, we have assumed they will be in place within seven days of the last model update. If not, the number of deaths and burden on their hospital systems will likely be higher than the model predicts,” Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation officials wrote in an explanation of their methods. “We also assume that implementation and adherence to these measures is complete.
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