Regional stability, oil prices and potential for war will all depend on what Iran does with its nuclear program in the event of the deal's termination.
However, he did confirm on Thursday that a U.S. Navy ship had destroyed an Iranian drone in a "defensive action"Nephew believes that Iran "will proceed cautiously on the nuclear side and in ways that are non-attributable — where possible — on the regional side." Some security experts suggest a "surgical strike" on Iranian nuclear facilities by the U.S., if anything, rather than an all-out war.
"Sure, Iranian speedboats or drones can harass shipping," Rubin said. "But if the Iranians go too far, the U.S. Navy can strike Iranian small boats and ports from hundreds of miles away in the Indian Ocean, and the Iranian military would have no effective defense."Israel, for its part, has said it will use any means necessary to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear bomb, though its internal deliberations on the matter are incredibly complex.
"With the U.S. presidential campaign underway, the last thing Donald Trump would need is a jump in domestic retail gasoline prices," Varga said. "Never say never, but military conflict is currently not plausible."For now, Iran's nuclear program remains as it was since the deal was signed: a long way off from having a deliverable bomb,"Nuclear risk is minimal," says Varga, noting that Iran's uranium enrichment breach puts it at 4.
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