It has not been the best of weeks for markets, with global equities well and truly hitting the ropes. In the US, major US equity indices and governmen
fell amid concerns over interest rates in the US remaining higher for longer. Consequently, US government bond yields rallied across the curve, nearing 16-year pinnacles for the benchmark 10-year yield. This, alongside growing concerns about China’s economy and property market, weakness in the Yuan and losses in the shadow banking sector and missed payments, added weight to market sentiment.
Wage and inflation numbers were the highlight for the UK last week. Unemployment jumped to 4.2% in June . Additionally, private sector wage growth rose more than expected in the three months to June and surpassed inflation for the first time since October 2021 . A day later, we saw consumer prices had eased to 6.8% in the twelve months to July , driven lower by declining gas and electricity prices. Core inflation for the same period was slightly higher than expected at 6.9%, versus the 6.
Kicking things off with the monthly scale, the trend remains firmly higher. I noted the following in previous writing : Meanwhile, on the daily timeframe, thanks to a healthy bid higher last week, candle action navigated beyond trendline resistance, drawn from the high of 114.78, and the 200-day simple moving average, currently circling 103.20. Closing above the aforesaid technical structures might be viewed as a bullish trend reversal signal. The question is whether the recent USD optimism is a genuine trend reversal to the upside on the daily timeframe .
To the upside on the monthly chart, the all-time high at 4,818 remains a logical target, in a market trending higher since early 2009. Should sellers remain in the driving seat, nevertheless, support warrants attention at 4,056. While buyers could defend daily support at 4,363 this week, the weekly support zone between 4,300 and 4,325 holds more technical weight. Therefore, this may serve as a magnet to price in the short to medium-term, consequently prompting further bearish plays this week and engulfing the current daily support base.Down nearly -4.0% MTD, spot gold erased -1.3% last week and dropped in on a descending resistance-turned-support taken from the high of $2,070 on the weekly chart.
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