Risky assets ended last week in the red, after news that Israel was preparing for a land invasion into Gaza sent commodity prices soaring. After last
weekend’s attacks in Israel, the initial flight to safety petered out, however, fighting has since intensified between Israel and Islamic fighters along the boarder with Lebanon, which is increasing fears that the Israel/ Palestine conflict will spread across the region. As we mentioned last week, war is inflationary, and war in the Middle East is particularly inflationary due to the importance of oil production in the region.
With the majority of major data releases already included in the estimate, we can expect a bumper GDP report from the US in the penultimate quarter of the year. The US economy is showing no signs of slowing, instead it is showing signs of gaining momentum and heating up as we move into the final months of the year.
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