For the Federal Reserve to pause its interest-rate hikes, “inflation needs to come down faster, and that’s most likely to happen in a recession,” said Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
The latest rally in U.S. stocks following signs of cooling inflation isn’t likely sustainable, warned Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
“We have seen this happen numerous times over the last few months as economic data has been released,” Wren wrote in a Wednesday client note. But his team said they suspect that if the October consumer-price index “had come in two-tenths above the consensus estimate,” the market response might not have been “as pretty.”
The rate on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note TMUBMUSD10Y, 3.681% dropped on Wednesday to about 3.7%, after hitting a peak of 4.2% in October. Yields and prices move in opposite directions. The consumer-price index, a closely watched inflation gauge, pegged the cost of living in the U.S. at 7.7% in October, down from above 9% this summer.
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