USD/CAD Weekly Forecast: The range is wide but it's still consolidation by JosephTrevisani usdcad
jumps 9% on the week and the Canadian dollar falls? Granted the rise in USD/CAD was tiny, 39 points to 1.2609, the BoC hike was wholly expected and thegenerated by the Ukraine war has sent WTI back and forth from $114 to $94 for more than a month.
Long-term the direction of the USD/CAD will probably be determined by the energy market. The US and Canadian economies tend to rise and fall together and their central banks are in sync. Oil was rising for a year before the Russian invasion on expectations that as the pandemic waned the global economy would recover and by anticipated supply restrictions placed on the world’s largest producer by the Biden administration.
“If demand responds quickly to higher rates and inflationary pressures moderate, it may be appropriate to pause our tightening once we get closer to the neutral rate and take,” said Mr. Macklem at his news conference. “On the other hand, we may need to take rates modestly above neutral for a period to bring demand and supply back into balance and inflation back to target.” Another 50 basis point hike in June is now a distinct possibility.
There was a fair amount of US market commentary that the 0.3% monthly increase in CPI, less than the 0.5% forecast and February’s rate, was evidence that inflation had peaked. While that is possible, the continuing sharp gains in PPI which will inevitably be transferred to consumer prices, make it doubtful.
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